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 Week 37
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 37

Genoa – Bologna

Stadio Luigi Ferraris (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 33,205. City: Genoa. Opened: 1911. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Genoa
30%
Draws
29%
Bologna
41%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Genoa ↓ · Bologna →0123456
010.0%11.8%7.9%3.4%1.1%0.3%0.1%
19.6%Most Likely Result: 13.5%8.4%3.6%1.2%0.3%0.1%
25.4%6.9%4.5%1.9%0.6%0.2%0.0%
31.9%2.5%1.6%0.7%0.2%0.1%0.0%
40.5%0.7%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%
50.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
1 - 1 (13.5%)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.06 – 1.29
Expected Points
1.19 – 1.52
Both Teams to Score
48.0%
Over 2.5
41.8%
Under 2.5
58.2%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Bologna have scored in 7 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Genoa

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W

Bologna

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Genoa
8
Draws
6
Bologna
6

20 Serie A meetings, 2015/16 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Genoa finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 3 – 2Wat Genoa2025/26
  2. 2 – 1Lat Bologna2025/26
  3. 1 – 3Wat Bologna2024/25
  4. 2 – 2Dat Genoa2024/25
  5. 2 – 0Wat Genoa2023/24
  6. 1 – 1Dat Bologna2023/24
  7. 0 – 1Lat Genoa2021/22
  8. 2 – 2Dat Bologna2021/22
  9. 0 – 2Wat Bologna2020/21
  10. 2 – 0Wat Genoa2020/21

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made