10,000 simulations · updated 8 November 2026
Serie A 2026/27 · title race, Scudetto odds and simulations
Who wins the 2026/27 title?
Inter are the favourites today: they win the league in 7 simulations out of 10. Roma are second on 16%.
How we work it outThe title probabilities
Every other club is under 0.1%.
Why are Lazio top, but only on 5.3%?
The model looks at how strong each side is, not only at points. That is why the team leading the table is not the favourite.
28 → 71.2
points now → end of season25 → 83.6
points now → end of seasonWho risks going down
Where each club finishes
From today's points to the points forecast for the end of the season, averaged over the simulations.
- Inter25 → 83.6
- Roma27 → 75.9
- Como23 → 71.6
- Lazio28 → 71.2
- Milan21 → 69.2
- Juventus17 → 66.4
- Napoli14 → 65.5
- Atalanta11 → 58.1
- Bologna17 → 55.0
- Frosinone20 → 52.9
- Fiorentina8 → 47.4
- Torino14 → 45.2
- Genoa13 → 44.6
- Cagliari16 → 44.4
- Sassuolo8 → 39.7
- Parma8 → 35.3
- Udinese5 → 34.6
- Lecce10 → 32.9
- Monza7 → 32.7
- Venezia6 → 28.9
All outcomes by club
Probability Table
| # | Club | Pts | Forecast points | Title | Champions places | European cups | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 25 | 83.6 | 67.9% | 97.7% | 99.7% | under 0.1% |
| 2 | Roma | 27 | 75.9 | 15.5% | 82.5% | 96.2% | under 0.1% |
| 3 | Como | 23 | 71.6 | 6.0% | 59.1% | 86.4% | under 0.1% |
| 4 | Lazio | 28 | 71.2 | 5.3% | 57.5% | 85.8% | under 0.1% |
| 5 | Milan | 21 | 69.2 | 3.0% | 45.4% | 77.5% | under 0.1% |
| 6 | Juventus | 17 | 66.4 | 1.3% | 27.7% | 64.3% | under 0.1% |
| 7 | Napoli | 14 | 65.5 | 0.8% | 24.0% | 59.1% | under 0.1% |
| 8 | Atalanta | 11 | 58.1 | under 0.1% | 4.0% | 17.1% | under 0.1% |
| 9 | Bologna | 17 | 55.0 | under 0.1% | 1.5% | 8.0% | under 0.1% |
| 10 | Frosinone | 20 | 52.9 | under 0.1% | 0.7% | 4.4% | 0.2% |
| 11 | Fiorentina | 8 | 47.4 | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.9% |
| 12 | Torino | 14 | 45.2 | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | 0.3% | 2.9% |
| 13 | Genoa | 13 | 44.6 | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | 0.2% | 3.9% |
| 14 | Cagliari | 16 | 44.4 | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | 0.2% | 3.9% |
| 15 | Sassuolo | 8 | 39.7 | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | 16.5% |
| 16 | Parma | 8 | 35.3 | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | 37.9% |
| 17 | Udinese | 5 | 34.6 | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | 43.2% |
| 18 | Lecce | 10 | 32.9 | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | 53.4% |
| 19 | Monza | 7 | 32.7 | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | 56.9% |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 28.9 | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | under 0.1% | 79.2% |
A dash means a probability under 0.1%.
How we work it out
- We estimate the result of every remaining match with the Dixon-Coles model.
- We play the rest of the season 10,000 times, under Serie A's rules: head-to-head first, then goal difference.
- We count how often each club wins, reaches the Champions League or goes down.
What we leave out: injuries and suspensions. We assume each side stays as strong as it is now until the end of the season.
- Assumes team strength is constant for the rest of the season.
- Injuries and suspensions are not modelled.
Think the model has it wrong?
Prove it: forecast the next round and take it on in the table.
Beat the ModelQuestions about the title race
Who are the favourites for the 2026/27 title?
Inter (67.9%), Roma (15.5%), Como (6.0%), Lazio (5.3%), on simulations updated on 8 November 2026.
Who is most at risk of relegation?
Venezia (79.2%), Monza (56.9%), Lecce (53.4%).
What does “Champions places” mean?
The probability of finishing the season in the top four.