METHODOLOGY
How is the probability of winning the title calculated?
We simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. In each simulation we draw a result for every match still to be played, according to the result probabilities of the Dixon-Coles model, add it to the current table and rank the clubs with Serie A's rules. A club's title probability is the share of simulations in which it finishes first.
Frequently asked questions
What do top 4, Europe and relegation mean?
They are shares of simulations: the top 4 probability is the share of simulations in which the club finishes among the first 4 places, the Europe one among the first 6, and the relegation one among the last 3.
How are clubs ranked when level on points?
Serie A does not start from goal difference: it looks first at the points in the matches between the clubs level on points, then the goal difference in those matches, then overall goal difference, and finally goals scored. We apply this order in every simulation.
Why do the probabilities change?
They depend on the current table and on the model's forecasts, so they change when new results arrive and the model is fitted again.
Limits and missing data
We do not model play-offs, and points deductions are not in our data: a table here can differ from the official one in a season in which a club was docked points.