2026/27 SEASON · DISCIPLINE MODEL
Card Risk
Expected cards by club in Serie A, with the model's stated limits: the referee isn't modelled.
- League Average
- 1.89
- Derby Effect
- +12%
By Club
League average is 1.89 cards per team per match.
Clubs Evaluated: 20
Lazio
1 / 202.28 expected · 10.9 fouls
- Oliver Provstgaardcards: 325%
- Mattia Zaccagnicards: 323%
- Kenneth Taylorcards: 218%
Lazio: 2.28 expected · 10.9 fouls
Model Limits
- Referee strictness is fitted from 90 officials, but these are club figures rather than a specific fixture, so no referee multiplier is applied to them.
- Based on team-level booking and foul rates, not on individual players' disciplinary history.
- The players listed are season-level, shrunk toward the team rate by minutes played, and include only players with at least 450 minutes — not a forecast for one specific upcoming match.
- Player statistics are loaded for 97 of the 105 matches played so far (through matchday 10), so the bookings counted here are totals over those matches only. The rest are not yet loaded, which is not the same as nothing having happened in them; the figures shown are correct for the matches they cover.
By Club · Clubs Evaluated: 20
1. Lazio
1. Lazio- Oliver Provstgaardcards: 325%
- Mattia Zaccagnicards: 323%
- Kenneth Taylorcards: 218%
2. Fiorentina
2. Fiorentina- Vierycards: 331%
- Mateo Pellegrinocards: 221%
- Franco Mastantuonocards: 220%
3. Venezia
3. Venezia- Joël Schingtiennecards: 332%
- Juan Jesuscards: 330%
- Matías Morenocards: 329%
4. Monza
4. Monza- Lorenzo Lucchesicards: 326%
- Eddy Kouadiocards: 219%
- Samuele Birindellicards: 217%
5. Como
5. Como- Martin Baturinacards: 222%
- Yan Coutocards: 217%
- Álex Vallecards: 114%
6. Cagliari
6. Cagliari- Alessandro Deiolacards: 430%
- Juan Martín Rodriguezcards: 323%
- Zé Pedro Figueiredocards: 218%
7. Sassuolo
7. Sassuolo- Domenico Berardicards: 221%
- Kieron Bowiecards: 115%
- Nemanja Maticcards: 113%
8. Roma
8. Roma- Mario Hermosocards: 221%
- Matìas Soulè Malvanocards: 220%
- Bryan Cristantecards: 220%
9. Udinese
9. Udinese- Jesper Karlströmcards: 428%
- Keinan Daviscards: 114%
- James Abankwahcards: 112%
10. Lecce
10. Lecce- Jamil Siebertcards: 326%
- Kialonda Gasparcards: 223%
- Danilo Veigacards: 323%
11. Bologna
11. Bologna- Torbjørn Heggemcards: 331%
- Tommaso Pobegacards: 328%
- Jens Odgaardcards: 225%
12. Genoa
12. Genoa- Leo Østigårdcards: 428%
- Johan Vásquezcards: 219%
- Mikael Egill Ellertssoncards: 218%
13. Milan
13. Milan- Koni De Wintercards: 323%
- Strahinja Pavlovićcards: 322%
- Gonçalo Ramoscards: 217%
14. Torino
14. Torino- Rafik Belghalicards: 221%
- Ardian Ismajlicards: 219%
- Daniel Bragançacards: 114%
15. Atalanta
15. Atalanta- Édersoncards: 217%
- Raoul Bellanovacards: 113%
- Nikola Krstoviccards: 112%
16. Frosinone
16. Frosinone- Gabriele Bracagliacards: 431%
- Antonio Raimondocards: 324%
- Romano Schmidcards: 218%
17. Inter
17. Inter- Carlos Augustocards: 222%
- Manuel Akanjicards: 218%
- Alessandro Bastonicards: 218%
18. Parma
18. Parma- Mariano Troilocards: 323%
- Enrico Del Pratocards: 217%
- Mandela Keitacards: 111%
19. Juventus
19. Juventus- Jhon Lucumícards: 218%
- Weston McKenniecards: 113%
- Zeki Çelikcards: 112%
20. Napoli
20. Napoli- Rafa Maríncards: 217%
- Matteo Politanocards: 112%
- Amir Rrahmanicards: 110%
Model Explanation
Fitted on
Limits
- Referee strictness is fitted from 90 officials, but these are club figures rather than a specific fixture, so no referee multiplier is applied to them.
- Based on team-level booking and foul rates, not on individual players' disciplinary history.
- The players listed are season-level, shrunk toward the team rate by minutes played, and include only players with at least 450 minutes — not a forecast for one specific upcoming match.
- Player statistics are loaded for 97 of the 105 matches played so far (through matchday 10), so the bookings counted here are totals over those matches only. The rest are not yet loaded, which is not the same as nothing having happened in them; the figures shown are correct for the matches they cover.