Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 23
Bologna – Milan
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 36,462. City: Bologna. Opened: 1927. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Bologna ↓ · Milan → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.9% | Most Likely Result: 12.7% | 9.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (12.7%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.19 – 1.46
- Expected Points
- 1.18 – 1.55
- Both Teams to Score
- 54.0%
- Over 2.5
- 49.6%
- Under 2.5
- 50.4%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Bologna have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Bologna have scored in 7 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Bologna
- 3
- Draws
- 4
- Milan
- 16
23 Serie A meetings, 2015/16 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Bologna finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.