Milan – Atalanta

Score: Milan 3, Atalanta 2

dom 18 ott, 18:00

Stadio Giuseppe MeazzaCapacity75,923CityMilanOpened1926SurfaceHybrid grass

Milan

Atalanta

Match context

Milan have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
Atalanta have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
Milan have scored in 9 consecutive Serie A matches.

Our model favoured this result

Model vs result

We gave it 41%
Most likely scoreline was 1-1 · actual 3-2

Milan: 41%
Draws: 26%
Atalanta: 33%

Limits of the forecast

Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match statistics

11Shots12
6On target5
3Big chances4
2.62Total xG1.92

MilanxG and shot data: understat.comAtalanta

xG Trend

xG and shot data: understat.com

Cumulative expected goals over time

Cumulative expected goals over time
Teams	15'	30'	45'	60'	75'	90'	Total xG
Milan	0.05	0.87	1.03	2.45	2.45	2.49	2.62
Atalanta	0.03	0.48	0.51	0.61	1.18	1.89	1.92

How to read the xG trend

Expected goals added up as the match went on. The line steps up when a team shoots, and the size of the step is how good the chance was. A team that climbs in one jump had a single clear opening; a staircase means many small ones. Dots mark goals.

Shot Map

xG and shot data: understat.com

Shot locations for this match

MilanAtalanta

GoalOn targetOff targetMarker size is xG

How to read the shot map

Every shot in the match, placed where it was struck. Each team attacks the goal on its own side. A marker's area is its xG — the chance an average player scores from there. Filled means it hit the target, a white ring means it went in. Tap or hover a shot for the detail.