Before the matchderby-emiliano
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 38
Bologna – Parma
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 36,462. City: Bologna. Opened: 1927. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Bologna ↓ · Parma → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | Most Likely Result: 13.7% | 12.4% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 10.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 0 (13.7%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.55 – 0.85
- Expected Points
- 1.87 – 0.87
- Both Teams to Score
- 45.4%
- Over 2.5
- 42.8%
- Under 2.5
- 57.2%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Bologna have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Bologna have scored in 7 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Bologna
- 5
- Draws
- 4
- Parma
- 2
11 Serie A meetings, 2018/19 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Bologna finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.