Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 36
Milan – Roma
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 75,923. City: Milan. Opened: 1926. Surface: Hybrid grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Milan ↓ · Roma → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.0% | Most Likely Result: 12.8% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 6.3% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (12.8%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.34 – 1.32
- Expected Points
- 1.38 – 1.35
- Both Teams to Score
- 54.5%
- Over 2.5
- 49.6%
- Under 2.5
- 50.4%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- This fixture has produced 29 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Milan have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Roma have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Milan
- 10
- Draws
- 8
- Roma
- 6
24 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Milan finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.