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 Week 35
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 35

Parma – Milan

Stadio Ennio Tardini (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 22,352. City: Parma. Opened: 1923. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Parma
18%
Draws
25%
Milan
56%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Parma ↓ · Milan →0123456
08.6%Most Likely Result: 13.2%11.3%6.3%2.6%0.9%0.2%
16.5%11.9%9.5%5.3%2.2%0.7%0.2%
22.9%4.8%4.0%2.2%0.9%0.3%0.1%
30.8%1.4%1.1%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
40.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%
50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
0 - 1 (13.2%)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.84 – 1.66
Expected Points
0.81 – 1.94
Both Teams to Score
46.5%
Over 2.5
45.7%
Under 2.5
54.3%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Parma have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
  • Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Parma

  1. L
  2. W
  3. D
  4. L
  5. L

Milan

  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. D

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Parma
2
Draws
3
Milan
7

12 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Parma finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 0 – 1Wat Milan2025/26
  2. 2 – 2Dat Parma2025/26
  3. 3 – 2Lat Milan2024/25
  4. 2 – 1Wat Parma2024/25
  5. 1 – 3Lat Parma2020/21
  6. 2 – 2Dat Milan2020/21
  7. 3 – 1Lat Milan2019/20
  8. 0 – 1Lat Parma2019/20
  9. 1 – 1Dat Parma2018/19
  10. 2 – 1Lat Milan2018/19

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made