Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 25
Milan – Genoa
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 75,923. City: Milan. Opened: 1926. Surface: Hybrid grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Milan ↓ · Genoa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | Most Likely Result: 12.8% | 11.2% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 11.8% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 7.0% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 0 (12.8%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.79 – 0.82
- Expected Points
- 2.03 – 0.73
- Both Teams to Score
- 47.1%
- Over 2.5
- 48.3%
- Under 2.5
- 51.7%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Milan have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Milan haven't lost to Genoa in their last 10 meetings (6W, 4D).
- Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Milan
- 12
- Draws
- 5
- Genoa
- 5
22 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Milan finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.