Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 25
Atalanta – Monza
Gewiss Stadium (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 25,000. City: Bergamo. Opened: 1928. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Atalanta ↓ · Monza → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Most Likely Result: 10.6% | 9.7% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 8.4% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 2 - 0 (10.6%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 2.38 – 0.92
- Expected Points
- 2.26 – 0.56
- Both Teams to Score
- 54.8%
- Over 2.5
- 63.7%
- Under 2.5
- 36.3%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Atalanta have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Atalanta have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Atalanta haven't lost to Monza in their last 6 meetings (6W, 0D).
- Monza have scored in 10 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Atalanta
- 6
- Draws
- 0
- Monza
- 0
6 Serie A meetings, 2022/23 to 2024/25. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Atalanta finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.