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 Week 24
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 24

Genoa – Atalanta

Stadio Luigi Ferraris (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 33,205. City: Genoa. Opened: 1911. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Genoa
23%
Draws
26%
Atalanta
52%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Genoa ↓ · Atalanta →0123456
07.5%11.2%9.5%5.2%2.1%0.7%0.2%
16.7%Most Likely Result: 12.2%9.6%5.2%2.1%0.7%0.2%
23.6%5.9%4.8%2.6%1.1%0.4%0.1%
31.2%2.0%1.6%0.9%0.4%0.1%0.0%
40.3%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%
50.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
1 - 1 (12.2%)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.01 – 1.64
Expected Points
0.94 – 1.80
Both Teams to Score
51.6%
Over 2.5
49.3%
Under 2.5
50.7%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Atalanta have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Genoa

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W

Atalanta

  1. L
  2. D
  3. D
  4. L
  5. W

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Genoa
3
Draws
6
Atalanta
13

22 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Genoa finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 0 – 0Dat Atalanta2025/26
  2. 0 – 1Lat Genoa2025/26
  3. 2 – 3Lat Genoa2024/25
  4. 5 – 1Lat Atalanta2024/25
  5. 1 – 4Lat Genoa2023/24
  6. 2 – 0Lat Atalanta2023/24
  7. 0 – 0Dat Atalanta2021/22
  8. 0 – 0Dat Genoa2021/22
  9. 3 – 4Lat Genoa2020/21
  10. 0 – 0Dat Atalanta2020/21

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made