Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 22
Monza – Roma
U-Power Stadium (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 17,102. City: Monza. Opened: 1988. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Monza ↓ · Roma → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5% | 10.4% | Most Likely Result: 11.2% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 4.3% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 2.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 0 - 2 (11.2%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 0.89 – 2.07
- Expected Points
- 0.66 – 2.13
- Both Teams to Score
- 51.8%
- Over 2.5
- 56.6%
- Under 2.5
- 43.4%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- This fixture has produced 25 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Roma have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Monza have scored in 10 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Monza
- 0
- Draws
- 2
- Roma
- 4
6 Serie A meetings, 2022/23 to 2024/25. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Monza finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.