Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 21
Genoa – Parma
Stadio Luigi Ferraris (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 33,205. City: Genoa. Opened: 1911. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Genoa ↓ · Parma → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | Most Likely Result: 14.0% | 13.7% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 0 (14.0%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.21 – 0.91
- Expected Points
- 1.58 – 1.12
- Both Teams to Score
- 42.4%
- Over 2.5
- 35.6%
- Under 2.5
- 64.4%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- This fixture has produced 31 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Genoa haven't lost to Parma in their last 5 meetings (3W, 2D).
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Genoa
- 5
- Draws
- 2
- Parma
- 6
13 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Genoa finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.