Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 19
Roma – Milan
Stadio Olimpico (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 70,634. City: Rome. Opened: 1932. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Roma ↓ · Milan → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.8% | Most Likely Result: 12.6% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 7.7% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (12.6%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.49 – 1.18
- Expected Points
- 1.58 – 1.15
- Both Teams to Score
- 54.2%
- Over 2.5
- 50.0%
- Under 2.5
- 50.0%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Roma have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- This fixture has produced 29 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Roma have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Roma
- 6
- Draws
- 8
- Milan
- 10
24 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Roma finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.