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 Week 18
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 18

Genoa – Monza

Stadio Luigi Ferraris (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 33,205. City: Genoa. Opened: 1911. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Genoa
46%
Draws
27%
Monza
26%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Genoa ↓ · Monza →0123456
08.6%8.0%4.4%1.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%
111.5%Most Likely Result: 12.9%6.5%2.3%0.6%0.1%0.0%
28.7%9.1%4.8%1.7%0.4%0.1%0.0%
34.3%4.5%2.3%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
41.6%1.6%0.9%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%
50.5%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
1 - 1 (12.9%)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.47 – 1.04
Expected Points
1.66 – 1.06
Both Teams to Score
50.3%
Over 2.5
45.9%
Under 2.5
54.1%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Monza have scored in 10 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Genoa

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W

Monza

  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Genoa
2
Draws
0
Monza
2

4 Serie A meetings, 2023/24 to 2024/25. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Genoa finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 2 – 0Wat Genoa2024/25
  2. 0 – 1Wat Monza2024/25
  3. 2 – 3Lat Genoa2023/24
  4. 1 – 0Lat Monza2023/24

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made