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 Week 14
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 14

Milan – Parma

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 75,923. City: Milan. Opened: 1926. Surface: Hybrid grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Milan
64%
Draws
22%
Parma
14%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Milan ↓ · Parma →0123456
07.6%5.0%2.0%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%
1Most Likely Result: 13.3%10.5%3.8%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
212.9%9.6%3.6%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
38.1%6.0%2.2%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
43.8%2.8%1.1%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
51.4%1.1%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
1 - 0 (13.3%)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.89 – 0.74
Expected Points
2.14 – 0.63
Both Teams to Score
44.8%
Over 2.5
48.7%
Under 2.5
51.3%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Milan have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
  • Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Milan

  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. D

Parma

  1. L
  2. W
  3. D
  4. L
  5. L

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Milan
7
Draws
3
Parma
2

12 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Milan finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 0 – 1Lat Milan2025/26
  2. 2 – 2Dat Parma2025/26
  3. 3 – 2Wat Milan2024/25
  4. 2 – 1Lat Parma2024/25
  5. 1 – 3Wat Parma2020/21
  6. 2 – 2Dat Milan2020/21
  7. 3 – 1Wat Milan2019/20
  8. 0 – 1Wat Parma2019/20
  9. 1 – 1Dat Parma2018/19
  10. 2 – 1Wat Milan2018/19

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made