Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 13
Roma – Monza
Stadio Olimpico (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 70,634. City: Rome. Opened: 1932. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Roma ↓ · Monza → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.0% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Most Likely Result: 12.1% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 9.5% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 5.6% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 2 - 0 (12.1%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 2.35 – 0.78
- Expected Points
- 2.33 – 0.49
- Both Teams to Score
- 49.4%
- Over 2.5
- 60.2%
- Under 2.5
- 39.8%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- This fixture has produced 25 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Roma haven't lost to Monza in their last 6 meetings (4W, 2D).
- Roma have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Monza have scored in 10 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Roma have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Roma
- 4
- Draws
- 2
- Monza
- 0
6 Serie A meetings, 2022/23 to 2024/25. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Roma finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.