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 Week 12
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 12

Parma – Roma

Stadio Ennio Tardini (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 22,352. City: Parma. Opened: 1923. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Parma
16%
Draws
25%
Roma
59%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Parma ↓ · Roma →0123456
08.8%Most Likely Result: 13.9%12.2%6.9%3.0%1.0%0.3%
16.1%11.5%9.5%5.4%2.3%0.8%0.2%
22.5%4.3%3.7%2.1%0.9%0.3%0.1%
30.7%1.1%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%
40.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
0 - 1 (13.9%)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.78 – 1.71
Expected Points
0.74 – 2.02
Both Teams to Score
44.5%
Over 2.5
45.0%
Under 2.5
55.0%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Parma have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
  • Roma have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Parma

  1. L
  2. W
  3. D
  4. L
  5. L

Roma

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. D
  5. W

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Parma
2
Draws
1
Roma
9

12 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Parma finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 2 – 3Lat Parma2025/26
  2. 2 – 1Lat Roma2025/26
  3. 0 – 1Lat Parma2024/25
  4. 5 – 0Lat Roma2024/25
  5. 2 – 0Wat Parma2020/21
  6. 3 – 0Lat Roma2020/21
  7. 2 – 1Lat Roma2019/20
  8. 2 – 0Wat Parma2019/20
  9. 2 – 1Lat Roma2018/19
  10. 0 – 2Lat Parma2018/19

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made