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 Week 38
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 38

Cagliari – Roma

Unipol Domus (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 16,416. City: Cagliari. Opened: 2017. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Cagliari
17%
Draws
24%
Roma
59%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Cagliari ↓ · Roma →0123456
07.4%Most Likely Result: 12.3%11.4%6.8%3.1%1.1%0.3%
15.7%11.3%9.8%5.8%2.6%0.9%0.3%
22.6%4.7%4.2%2.5%1.1%0.4%0.1%
30.7%1.3%1.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.0%
40.2%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%
50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
0 - 1 (12.3%)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.86 – 1.80
Expected Points
0.75 – 2.01
Both Teams to Score
48.5%
Over 2.5
49.4%
Under 2.5
50.6%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Cagliari have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
  • Roma have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Cagliari

  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L

Roma

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. D
  5. W

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Cagliari
2
Draws
4
Roma
15

21 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Cagliari finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 4 – 2Lat Roma2026/27
  2. 2 – 0Lat Roma2025/26
  3. 1 – 0Wat Cagliari2025/26
  4. 1 – 0Lat Roma2024/25
  5. 0 – 0Dat Cagliari2024/25
  6. 4 – 0Lat Roma2023/24
  7. 1 – 4Lat Cagliari2023/24
  8. 1 – 0Lat Roma2021/22
  9. 1 – 2Lat Cagliari2021/22
  10. 3 – 2Wat Cagliari2020/21

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made