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 Week 37
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 37

Venezia – Milan

Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 11,150. City: Venice. Opened: 1913. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Venezia
14%
Draws
23%
Milan
63%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Venezia ↓ · Milan →0123456
07.8%Most Likely Result: 13.4%12.8%8.0%3.7%1.4%0.4%
15.1%10.6%9.6%5.9%2.8%1.0%0.3%
22.1%3.8%3.6%2.2%1.0%0.4%0.1%
30.5%1.0%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
40.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
0 - 1 (13.4%)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.75 – 1.86
Expected Points
0.65 – 2.13
Both Teams to Score
44.8%
Over 2.5
48.2%
Under 2.5
51.8%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Venezia have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
  • Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Venezia

  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W

Milan

  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. D

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Venezia
0
Draws
0
Milan
5

5 Serie A meetings, 2021/22 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Venezia finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 2 – 0Lat Milan2026/27
  2. 0 – 2Lat Venezia2024/25
  3. 4 – 0Lat Milan2024/25
  4. 0 – 3Lat Venezia2021/22
  5. 2 – 0Lat Milan2021/22

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made