Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 35
Genoa – Cagliari
Stadio Luigi Ferraris (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 33,205. City: Genoa. Opened: 1911. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Genoa ↓ · Cagliari → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7% | 9.8% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.5% | Most Likely Result: 13.6% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 8.3% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (13.6%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.27 – 1.01
- Expected Points
- 1.55 – 1.16
- Both Teams to Score
- 46.2%
- Over 2.5
- 39.9%
- Under 2.5
- 60.1%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- This fixture has produced 25 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Genoa haven't lost to Cagliari in their last 5 meetings (2W, 3D).
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Genoa
- 11
- Draws
- 5
- Cagliari
- 4
20 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Genoa finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.