Before the matchderby-dellappennino
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 34
Bologna – Fiorentina
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 36,462. City: Bologna. Opened: 1927. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Bologna ↓ · Fiorentina → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.5% | Most Likely Result: 12.7% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 7.2% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (12.7%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.45 – 1.23
- Expected Points
- 1.52 – 1.21
- Both Teams to Score
- 54.5%
- Over 2.5
- 50.0%
- Under 2.5
- 50.0%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- This fixture has produced 27 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Bologna have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Fiorentina have scored in 8 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Bologna have scored in 7 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Bologna
- 4
- Draws
- 7
- Fiorentina
- 11
22 Serie A meetings, 2015/16 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Bologna finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.