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 Week 30
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 30

Venezia – Parma

Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 11,150. City: Venice. Opened: 1913. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Venezia
31%
Draws
31%
Parma
37%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Venezia ↓ · Parma →0123456
013.5%13.5%7.5%2.7%0.7%0.2%0.0%
112.0%Most Likely Result: 14.0%7.3%2.6%0.7%0.2%0.0%
26.1%6.5%3.5%1.3%0.3%0.1%0.0%
32.0%2.1%1.1%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
40.5%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
50.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
1 - 1 (14.0%)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.97 – 1.08
Expected Points
1.26 – 1.43
Both Teams to Score
41.3%
Over 2.5
33.5%
Under 2.5
66.5%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Venezia have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Venezia

  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W

Parma

  1. L
  2. W
  3. D
  4. L
  5. L

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Venezia
0
Draws
1
Parma
1

2 Serie A meetings, 2024/25 to 2024/25. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Venezia finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 1 – 1Dat Parma2024/25
  2. 1 – 2Lat Venezia2024/25

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made