Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 29
Atalanta – Milan
Gewiss Stadium (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 25,000. City: Bergamo. Opened: 1928. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Atalanta ↓ · Milan → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.9% | Most Likely Result: 12.0% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 6.3% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (12.0%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.51 – 1.39
- Expected Points
- 1.46 – 1.29
- Both Teams to Score
- 58.9%
- Over 2.5
- 55.4%
- Under 2.5
- 44.6%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Atalanta have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Atalanta have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Atalanta haven't lost to Milan in their last 6 meetings (4W, 2D).
- Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Atalanta
- 9
- Draws
- 9
- Milan
- 7
25 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Atalanta finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.