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 Week 28
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 28

Genoa – Roma

Stadio Luigi Ferraris (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 33,205. City: Genoa. Opened: 1911. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Genoa
20%
Draws
26%
Roma
55%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Genoa ↓ · Roma →0123456
08.8%Most Likely Result: 13.2%11.0%5.9%2.4%0.8%0.2%
16.8%12.1%9.5%5.1%2.1%0.7%0.2%
23.1%5.0%4.1%2.2%0.9%0.3%0.1%
30.9%1.4%1.2%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
40.2%0.3%0.3%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%
50.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
0 - 1 (13.2%)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.86 – 1.62
Expected Points
0.84 – 1.90
Both Teams to Score
46.6%
Over 2.5
44.9%
Under 2.5
55.1%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Roma have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Genoa

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W

Roma

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. D
  5. W

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Genoa
2
Draws
5
Roma
16

23 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Genoa finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 2 – 0Lat Roma2026/27
  2. 2 – 1Wat Genoa2025/26
  3. 3 – 1Lat Roma2025/26
  4. 3 – 1Lat Roma2024/25
  5. 1 – 1Dat Genoa2024/25
  6. 1 – 0Lat Roma2023/24
  7. 4 – 1Wat Genoa2023/24
  8. 0 – 0Dat Roma2021/22
  9. 0 – 2Lat Genoa2021/22
  10. 1 – 0Lat Roma2020/21

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made