Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 27
Milan – Cagliari
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 75,923. City: Milan. Opened: 1926. Surface: Hybrid grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Milan ↓ · Cagliari → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.7% | 10.2% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Most Likely Result: 11.9% | 9.8% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 7.9% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 2 - 0 (11.9%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.99 – 0.82
- Expected Points
- 2.14 – 0.65
- Both Teams to Score
- 48.7%
- Over 2.5
- 53.1%
- Under 2.5
- 46.9%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Milan have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Milan
- 13
- Draws
- 5
- Cagliari
- 2
20 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Milan finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.