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 Week 26
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 26

Genoa – Lazio

Stadio Luigi Ferraris (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 33,205. City: Genoa. Opened: 1911. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Genoa
25%
Draws
28%
Lazio
48%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Genoa ↓ · Lazio →0123456
09.5%12.5%9.4%4.5%1.6%0.5%0.1%
18.3%Most Likely Result: 13.0%9.0%4.3%1.6%0.5%0.1%
24.2%6.1%4.4%2.1%0.8%0.2%0.1%
31.4%2.0%1.4%0.7%0.2%0.1%0.0%
40.3%0.5%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%
50.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
1 - 1 (13.0%)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.97 – 1.44
Expected Points
1.02 – 1.70
Both Teams to Score
47.7%
Over 2.5
43.2%
Under 2.5
56.8%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Lazio have scored in 11 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Genoa

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W

Lazio

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Genoa
5
Draws
3
Lazio
15

23 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Genoa finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 1 – 0Lat Lazio2026/27
  2. 3 – 2Lat Lazio2025/26
  3. 0 – 3Lat Genoa2025/26
  4. 0 – 2Lat Genoa2024/25
  5. 3 – 0Lat Lazio2024/25
  6. 0 – 1Lat Genoa2023/24
  7. 0 – 1Wat Lazio2023/24
  8. 1 – 4Lat Genoa2021/22
  9. 3 – 1Lat Lazio2021/22
  10. 4 – 3Lat Lazio2020/21

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made