Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 26
Bologna – Lecce
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 36,462. City: Bologna. Opened: 1927. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Bologna ↓ · Lecce → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | Most Likely Result: 15.0% | 11.8% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 6.6% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 0 (15.0%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.61 – 0.74
- Expected Points
- 1.99 – 0.76
- Both Teams to Score
- 42.2%
- Over 2.5
- 41.5%
- Under 2.5
- 58.5%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Bologna have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Bologna haven't lost to Lecce in their last 11 meetings (8W, 3D).
- Bologna have scored in 7 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Bologna
- 8
- Draws
- 3
- Lecce
- 0
11 Serie A meetings, 2019/20 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Bologna finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.