Before the matchderby-della-madonnina
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 24
Inter – Milan
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 75,923. City: Milan. Opened: 1926. Surface: Hybrid grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Inter ↓ · Milan → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.9% | Most Likely Result: 10.8% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 8.8% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 5.6% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (10.8%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.90 – 1.12
- Expected Points
- 1.88 – 0.89
- Both Teams to Score
- 57.8%
- Over 2.5
- 58.1%
- Under 2.5
- 41.9%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- In Derby Della Madonnina, Milan have won 3 of the last 5.
- Inter have scored in 20 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Inter have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Inter
- 10
- Draws
- 7
- Milan
- 8
25 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Inter finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.