Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 22
Milan – Juventus
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 75,923. City: Milan. Opened: 1926. Surface: Hybrid grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Milan ↓ · Juventus → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4% | 10.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.5% | Most Likely Result: 13.5% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (13.5%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.23 – 1.19
- Expected Points
- 1.38 – 1.33
- Both Teams to Score
- 49.7%
- Over 2.5
- 43.5%
- Under 2.5
- 56.5%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Milan haven't lost to Juventus in their last 3 meetings (0W, 3D).
- Juventus have scored in 7 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Milan have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Milan
- 5
- Draws
- 7
- Juventus
- 13
25 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Milan finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.