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 Week 17
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 17

Cagliari – Genoa

Unipol Domus (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 16,416. City: Cagliari. Opened: 2017. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Cagliari
36%
Draws
30%
Genoa
35%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Cagliari ↓ · Genoa →0123456
010.8%11.2%6.5%2.4%0.7%0.2%0.0%
111.4%Most Likely Result: 13.8%7.5%2.8%0.8%0.2%0.0%
26.8%7.6%4.3%1.6%0.4%0.1%0.0%
32.6%2.9%1.6%0.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%
40.7%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
50.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
1 - 1 (13.8%)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.14 – 1.12
Expected Points
1.37 – 1.34
Both Teams to Score
46.5%
Over 2.5
39.5%
Under 2.5
60.5%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Cagliari have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
  • This fixture has produced 25 cards in the last 5 meetings.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Cagliari

  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L

Genoa

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Cagliari
4
Draws
5
Genoa
11

20 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Cagliari finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 3 – 0Lat Genoa2025/26
  2. 3 – 3Dat Cagliari2025/26
  3. 1 – 1Dat Cagliari2024/25
  4. 2 – 2Dat Genoa2024/25
  5. 3 – 0Lat Genoa2023/24
  6. 2 – 1Wat Cagliari2023/24
  7. 1 – 0Lat Genoa2021/22
  8. 2 – 3Lat Cagliari2021/22
  9. 0 – 1Lat Cagliari2020/21
  10. 1 – 0Lat Genoa2020/21

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made