Before the matchderby-dellappennino
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 16
Fiorentina – Bologna
Stadio Artemio Franchi (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 43,147. City: Florence. Opened: 1931. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Fiorentina ↓ · Bologna → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.2% | Most Likely Result: 12.8% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (12.8%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.39 – 1.28
- Expected Points
- 1.44 – 1.29
- Both Teams to Score
- 54.6%
- Over 2.5
- 49.8%
- Under 2.5
- 50.2%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- This fixture has produced 27 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Fiorentina haven't lost to Bologna in their last 3 meetings (2W, 1D).
- Fiorentina have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Fiorentina have scored in 8 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Bologna have scored in 7 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Fiorentina
- 11
- Draws
- 7
- Bologna
- 4
22 Serie A meetings, 2015/16 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Fiorentina finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.