Before the matchderby-della-capitale
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 15
Lazio – Roma
Stadio Olimpico (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 70,634. City: Rome. Opened: 1932. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Lazio ↓ · Roma → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.8% | Most Likely Result: 13.0% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (13.0%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.23 – 1.36
- Expected Points
- 1.27 – 1.46
- Both Teams to Score
- 53.0%
- Over 2.5
- 47.9%
- Under 2.5
- 52.1%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- This fixture has produced 36 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- In Derby Della Capitale, Roma have won 4 of the last 5.
- Roma have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Lazio have scored in 11 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Lazio
- 6
- Draws
- 6
- Roma
- 12
24 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Lazio finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.