Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 12
Atalanta – Inter
Gewiss Stadium (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 25,000. City: Bergamo. Opened: 1928. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Atalanta ↓ · Inter → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 5.4% | Most Likely Result: 10.8% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 3.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (10.8%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.33 – 1.81
- Expected Points
- 1.07 – 1.69
- Both Teams to Score
- 61.8%
- Over 2.5
- 60.6%
- Under 2.5
- 39.4%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Atalanta have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Atalanta have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- This fixture has produced 25 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Inter have scored in 20 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Atalanta
- 2
- Draws
- 8
- Inter
- 14
24 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Atalanta finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.