Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 38
Napoli – Atalanta
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 54,726. City: Naples. Opened: 1959. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Napoli ↓ · Atalanta → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.5% | Most Likely Result: 12.3% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 7.8% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (12.3%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.57 – 1.19
- Expected Points
- 1.63 – 1.11
- Both Teams to Score
- 55.6%
- Over 2.5
- 52.1%
- Under 2.5
- 47.9%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Atalanta have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Napoli have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Napoli have scored in 9 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Napoli
- 12
- Draws
- 3
- Atalanta
- 9
24 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Napoli finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.