Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 37
Fiorentina – Monza
Stadio Artemio Franchi (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 43,147. City: Florence. Opened: 1931. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Fiorentina ↓ · Monza → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.7% | Most Likely Result: 10.8% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 9.7% | 10.0% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (10.8%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.92 – 1.03
- Expected Points
- 1.96 – 0.82
- Both Teams to Score
- 55.3%
- Over 2.5
- 56.5%
- Under 2.5
- 43.5%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- This fixture has produced 26 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Monza have scored in 10 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Fiorentina have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Fiorentina have scored in 8 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Fiorentina
- 2
- Draws
- 2
- Monza
- 2
6 Serie A meetings, 2022/23 to 2024/25. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Fiorentina finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.