Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 37
Atalanta – Lecce
Gewiss Stadium (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 25,000. City: Bergamo. Opened: 1928. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Atalanta ↓ · Lecce → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.9% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Most Likely Result: 13.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 9.1% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 2 - 0 (13.5%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 2.03 – 0.70
- Expected Points
- 2.25 – 0.55
- Both Teams to Score
- 44.2%
- Over 2.5
- 51.3%
- Under 2.5
- 48.7%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Atalanta have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Atalanta have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Atalanta haven't lost to Lecce in their last 6 meetings (5W, 1D).
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Atalanta
- 7
- Draws
- 1
- Lecce
- 2
10 Serie A meetings, 2019/20 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Atalanta finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.