Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 33
Lecce – Milan
Stadio Via del Mare (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 31,533. City: Lecce. Opened: 1966. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Lecce ↓ · Milan → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9% | Most Likely Result: 14.3% | 12.7% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 0 - 1 (14.3%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 0.74 – 1.73
- Expected Points
- 0.70 – 2.06
- Both Teams to Score
- 43.2%
- Over 2.5
- 44.5%
- Under 2.5
- 55.5%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Lecce
- 0
- Draws
- 3
- Milan
- 8
11 Serie A meetings, 2019/20 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Lecce finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.