Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 31
Fiorentina – Milan
Stadio Artemio Franchi (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 43,147. City: Florence. Opened: 1931. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Fiorentina ↓ · Milan → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.2% | Most Likely Result: 12.3% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 4.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (12.3%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.22 – 1.56
- Expected Points
- 1.14 – 1.60
- Both Teams to Score
- 56.1%
- Over 2.5
- 52.5%
- Under 2.5
- 47.5%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- This fixture has produced 29 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Fiorentina have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Fiorentina have scored in 8 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Fiorentina
- 7
- Draws
- 6
- Milan
- 11
24 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Fiorentina finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.