Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 29
Roma – Lecce
Stadio Olimpico (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 70,634. City: Rome. Opened: 1932. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Roma ↓ · Lecce → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Most Likely Result: 14.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 10.0% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 2 - 0 (14.9%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 2.01 – 0.60
- Expected Points
- 2.31 – 0.49
- Both Teams to Score
- 39.3%
- Over 2.5
- 48.0%
- Under 2.5
- 52.0%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Roma have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Roma haven't lost to Lecce in their last 11 meetings (9W, 2D).
- Roma have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Roma
- 9
- Draws
- 2
- Lecce
- 0
11 Serie A meetings, 2019/20 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Roma finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.