Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 28
Milan – Sassuolo
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 75,923. City: Milan. Opened: 1926. Surface: Hybrid grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Milan ↓ · Sassuolo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 9.6% | Most Likely Result: 9.9% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 7.2% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 2 - 1 (9.9%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 2.24 – 1.03
- Expected Points
- 2.12 – 0.68
- Both Teams to Score
- 57.8%
- Over 2.5
- 63.2%
- Under 2.5
- 36.8%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Milan have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- This fixture has produced 29 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Sassuolo have scored in 7 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Milan
- 10
- Draws
- 6
- Sassuolo
- 7
23 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Milan finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.