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 Week 25
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 25

Venezia – Cagliari

Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 11,150. City: Venice. Opened: 1913. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Venezia
31%
Draws
30%
Cagliari
39%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Venezia ↓ · Cagliari →0123456
011.4%12.6%7.8%3.1%0.9%0.2%0.0%
110.7%Most Likely Result: 13.8%7.9%3.2%0.9%0.2%0.0%
25.7%6.8%4.0%1.6%0.5%0.1%0.0%
31.9%2.3%1.4%0.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%
40.5%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
50.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
1 - 1 (13.8%)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.02 – 1.19
Expected Points
1.22 – 1.48
Both Teams to Score
45.0%
Over 2.5
38.0%
Under 2.5
62.0%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Venezia have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Venezia

  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W

Cagliari

  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Venezia
1
Draws
2
Cagliari
1

4 Serie A meetings, 2021/22 to 2024/25. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Venezia finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 3 – 0Lat Cagliari2024/25
  2. 2 – 1Wat Venezia2024/25
  3. 0 – 0Dat Venezia2021/22
  4. 1 – 1Dat Cagliari2021/22

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made