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 Week 23
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 23

Como – Monza

Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 13,602. City: Como. Opened: 1927. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Como
70%
Draws
19%
Monza
11%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Como ↓ · Monza →0123456
05.4%3.6%1.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
111.0%9.0%3.3%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2Most Likely Result: 12.5%9.6%3.7%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
39.2%7.1%2.7%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%
45.1%3.9%1.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
52.3%1.7%0.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.8%0.6%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
2 - 0 (12.5%)
Expected Goals (xG)
2.21 – 0.77
Expected Points
2.28 – 0.53
Both Teams to Score
47.9%
Over 2.5
56.8%
Under 2.5
43.2%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Como have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
  • Como have scored in 7 consecutive Serie A matches.
  • Monza have scored in 10 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Como

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. D

Monza

  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Como
1
Draws
1
Monza
0

2 Serie A meetings, 2024/25 to 2024/25. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Como finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 1 – 3Wat Monza2024/25
  2. 1 – 1Dat Como2024/25

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made