Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 22
Genoa – Lecce
Stadio Luigi Ferraris (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 33,205. City: Genoa. Opened: 1911. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Genoa ↓ · Lecce → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | Most Likely Result: 15.7% | 13.3% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 10.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 0 (15.7%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.25 – 0.80
- Expected Points
- 1.70 – 1.00
- Both Teams to Score
- 39.7%
- Over 2.5
- 33.7%
- Under 2.5
- 66.3%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Genoa
- 4
- Draws
- 3
- Lecce
- 2
9 Serie A meetings, 2019/20 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Genoa finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.