Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 22
Atalanta – Fiorentina
Gewiss Stadium (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 25,000. City: Bergamo. Opened: 1928. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Atalanta ↓ · Fiorentina → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.8% | Most Likely Result: 11.1% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 8.4% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 5.1% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (11.1%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.84 – 1.16
- Expected Points
- 1.81 – 0.95
- Both Teams to Score
- 58.2%
- Over 2.5
- 57.6%
- Under 2.5
- 42.4%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Atalanta have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Atalanta have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Fiorentina have scored in 8 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Atalanta haven't lost to Fiorentina in their last 3 meetings (1W, 2D).
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Atalanta
- 7
- Draws
- 8
- Fiorentina
- 10
25 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Atalanta finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.