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 Week 21
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 21

Frosinone – Milan

Stadio Benito Stirpe (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 16,227. City: Frosinone. Opened: 2017. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Frosinone
26%
Draws
23%
Milan
51%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Frosinone ↓ · Milan →0123456
04.1%7.0%7.2%4.7%2.3%0.9%0.3%
14.7%Most Likely Result: 10.2%9.6%6.2%3.0%1.2%0.4%
23.3%6.5%6.4%4.1%2.0%0.8%0.3%
31.5%2.9%2.8%1.8%0.9%0.3%0.1%
40.5%1.0%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
50.1%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
1 - 1 (10.2%)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.33 – 1.95
Expected Points
1.00 – 1.77
Both Teams to Score
63.4%
Over 2.5
63.5%
Under 2.5
36.5%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Frosinone have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
  • Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Frosinone

  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. D
  5. W

Milan

  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. D

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Frosinone
0
Draws
2
Milan
4

6 Serie A meetings, 2015/16 to 2023/24. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Frosinone finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 2 – 3Lat Frosinone2023/24
  2. 3 – 1Lat Milan2023/24
  3. 2 – 0Lat Milan2018/19
  4. 0 – 0Dat Frosinone2018/19
  5. 3 – 3Dat Milan2015/16
  6. 2 – 4Lat Frosinone2015/16

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made