Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 18
Milan – Fiorentina
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 75,923. City: Milan. Opened: 1926. Surface: Hybrid grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Milan ↓ · Fiorentina → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.9% | Most Likely Result: 11.5% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 9.1% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (11.5%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.77 – 1.08
- Expected Points
- 1.83 – 0.92
- Both Teams to Score
- 55.0%
- Over 2.5
- 54.0%
- Under 2.5
- 46.0%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Milan have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- This fixture has produced 29 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Milan haven't lost to Fiorentina in their last 3 meetings (1W, 2D).
- Fiorentina have scored in 8 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Milan
- 11
- Draws
- 6
- Fiorentina
- 7
24 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Milan finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.