Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 17
Parma – Napoli
Stadio Ennio Tardini (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 22,352. City: Parma. Opened: 1923. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Parma ↓ · Napoli → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4% | Most Likely Result: 14.5% | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 0 - 1 (14.5%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 0.75 – 1.66
- Expected Points
- 0.74 – 2.01
- Both Teams to Score
- 43.2%
- Over 2.5
- 43.3%
- Under 2.5
- 56.7%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Parma have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Parma haven't lost to Napoli in their last 3 meetings (0W, 3D).
- Napoli have scored in 9 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Parma
- 2
- Draws
- 4
- Napoli
- 6
12 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Parma finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.