Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 16
Milan – Como
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 75,923. City: Milan. Opened: 1926. Surface: Hybrid grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Milan ↓ · Como → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.8% | Most Likely Result: 13.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (13.2%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.31 – 1.24
- Expected Points
- 1.41 – 1.31
- Both Teams to Score
- 52.3%
- Over 2.5
- 46.9%
- Under 2.5
- 53.1%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Milan have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- This fixture has produced 20 cards in the last 4 meetings.
- Milan haven't lost to Como in their last 4 meetings (3W, 1D).
- Como have scored in 7 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Milan
- 3
- Draws
- 1
- Como
- 0
4 Serie A meetings, 2024/25 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Milan finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.